Blogosaurus

One of the things that George W. Bush is often credited with in the blogosphere is a "rope-a-dope" strategy-- letting his opponents hog the limelight until they screw up. One of the things John Kerry is often condemned for in the blogosphere is keeping a low profile and hoping that being Not-Bush will be enough to let him squeak to victory. In other words, a rope-a-dope strategy. So what happens when two guys play rope-a-dope and nobody ever gets into the middle of the ring to throw a punch?

Well, they can't both lose-- though that's one way to look at the results of the 2000 election mess, I suppose-- and more to the point, there are three debates scheduled, as well as a speech that Bush will pretty much have to make tomorrow night. So much as they might like to avoid the election for a couple of months, much as Bush and Cheney seem to prefer operating the government completely out of the view of anyone, like a closely held family business, these events will eventually force both of them into actually campaigning and not simply letting their surrogates fight it out, Obama versus Schwarzenegger in the battle of the immigrant all-stars.

What does history tell us will be the likely outcome? Two things. Bush will blow his speech Thursday night. He will be dull and awkward as only he can be, in that weird, American as a Second Language manner he has. And as a result, Bush will win.

Why will blowing his convention speech mean Bush will win? Because it will lower expectations to the third sub-basement for the debates. It will pump Kerry up, even prompt press nostalgia for his truly lousy and pandering (but effectively delivered) "I'm ready for duty!" acceptance speech. And then, just like he did Gore... Bush will rope-a-dope in three debates out of three. He will remain robotic, seemingly tuned to a Texas version of Andy Kaufman's wavelength; he will blow simple questions and stammer helplessly when the going gets tough; he will bring Jesus up in response to questions about free trade zones and say, in response to a question about foreign policy, that he doesn't have one, he only has an American policy, so there.

And it won't matter a bit, because Kerry will say something devastatingly inappropriate in one debate, ten times worse than "a more sensitive foreign policy"; he will offer a hopelessly tongue-tied rewriting of his Vietnam era history that makes everything much, much worse, he will say our real enemy is Poland and invite Osama Bin Laden to stay in the Lincoln Bedroom and talk things over, and he will call his Secret Service bodyguards "cocksucking motherfuckers" on national TV during family hour. If there's one rule of modern politics, it's this: in a contest of rope-a-dope, never misunderestimate the power of someone opposite George W. Bush, convinced that they have 50 IQ points on him, to go absolutely, totally insane on national television and destroy their career forever.